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Stress tests: Scenario analysis

Our comprehensive macroeconomic forecasting capability allows us to undertake client-specified scenario exercises at a national and regional level of geography and at the segmented household level providing estimates of household incomes and other key measures under alternative macroeconomic assumptions. 

Our scenario exercises use the well respected NiGEM model from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research as well as our own in-house macroeconomic and industry models.

The macroeconomic drivers of scenarios can be outputs from the UK macro models currently employed by the clients, or any other set of macroeconomic forecast assumptions covering a standard set of forecast variables.   

In undertaking scenarios, assumptions for standard macroeconomic variables are used to generate additional, more detailed variables at the UK level using satellite models for the household sector and economic activity by industry sector.  

In order to generate reasonable segmented forecasts for household income, etc. under the scenario assumptions, we require greater detail on the evolution of sources of housing income at the UK level than are commonly provided within UK macroeconomic models.  

The scenario capability therefore requires a satellite model to generate this expanded set of household variables based on scenario assumptions and standard macro model outputs, so allowing predictions to be made of the impact of each scenario on household finances by segment.

Click on the image below to expand:

 

stress test diagram

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