Navigate page Get in touch Overview Credit Mortgages Delinquency risk Consumer behaviour Get in touch Experian quarterly affordability and credit updateAutumn 2025 Data-Driven Insights into Consumer Trends and AffordabilityAs we round out the first half of FY26, the UK credit landscape continues to evolve and grow in response to shifting consumer attitudes, economic changes, and bolstered lender confidence. This report explores four key themes shaping the market: demand for credit, delinquency rates, changing consumer behaviour and an exploration into the events that precede mortgage arrears. With the Bank of England holding the base rate at 4% in response to rising inflation, and, at the time of writing, speculation around tax rises in the upcoming budget, affordability remains a key topic; having access to the right data to continue to support consumers will be crucial for lenders.The demand for credit has continued its upward trajectory since our last update and continues to be met by lenders with new lending growth seen across all verticals, including:+17% YTD growth in cards +12% YTD growth in personal loans +15% YTD growth in mortgages and +2% YTD growth in Auto FinanceThe unsecured markets in particular are going through a period of expansion, with increasingly attractive products being brought to market, driving increased competition and causing a shift in market dynamics.Despite the uncertain backdrop, the lending landscape in the UK remains strong with lenders continuing to diversify and support new segments and consumers responding positively to new market offerings.“A further quarter of significant growth in lending, supported by high consumer demand for competitive products, lender confidence and stable risk performance.” David Kerry, Director of Data Insights, ExperianKey findingsScroll down to find out more about the latest affordability updates or click on a category below to jump to that section.CreditThe credit landscape remains strong.High demand and the resilience of lender confidence have led to new lending growth across all verticals, causing a change in market dynamics, particularly for credit cards and personal loans.MortgagesAccess to mortgages has improved, but risks should be monitored.Relaxation of lending rules has led to the opening of the mortgage market to more segments, but there are some key indicators lenders can look out for to prevent missed payments.Delinquency RiskDelinquency rates remain stable and risk-aligned, but there are some early indicators of emergence.Delinquency remains aligned to risk, but the loosening of risk strategies in the personal loans market is beginning to play through.Consumer BehaviourConsumer attitudes are changingCard ownership is rising particularly among younger consumers which is contrary to historical trends, likely due to the introduction of adjacent market features into cards. This, and increased BNPL use among older demographics, shows a shifting attitude toward credit, driven by education, convenience and flexibility.About the Experian affordability and credit updateThis update is based on real consumer data, rather than outputs from analytics models or predictive models. By avoiding interpretation, we can provide the most unbiased view of affordability possible at a given point in time.As a leading UK credit reference agency, we have access to rich financial data covering individuals and households across the country, putting us in a unique position to analyse and interpret the impact of rising societal costs or financial market changes on consumers and lenders.Real data, not predictions or modelsCreditStrong growth in cards leading to shifting market dynamics Demand for credit cards is up +9% YTD and is being confidently met by lenders, with new lending volumes up +17% YTD.Applications are being supported by the strong use of eligibility journeys that allow consumers to see what cards they are likely to be approved for before moving on to a full application.At the beginning of the eligibility journey, consumers must select the type of card they are looking for, for example, bad credit, balance transfer and so on. Recently, there has been a notable rise in searches for “all cards”, indicating consumers are looking to take advantage of all available offers in the market, shifting away from searches for those cards offering to help with bad credit or balance transfers; both of which had been trending upwards for some time previously. With this increased demand on the cards market as a whole, lenders have responded by increasing product availability, offering more diverse products with new and enticing features. This includes balance transfer cards offering up to 35 months interest-free (something that hasn’t been seen for a long time) and the increased use of “low and grow” limits in the subprime segments. Along with these new products, there has also been a rise in the number of pre-approved offers being shown to consumers, plus very significant growth in the number of consumers coming back to look for credit on multiple occasions.This increase in both supply and demand has resulted in a shift in market dynamics, with the market share of newly opened cards with traditional banks being eroded in favour of non-bank providers, who are able to adapt more easily when faced with a highly competitive environment. In particular, non-bank providers are expanding into lower-value lending while traditional banks have reduced in this segment, as shown in the table below. The banks appear to be targeting more prime individuals, but, whilst still a smaller presence in terms of volume, the non-bank providers are also growing in this space. Looking at the % change in new lending YTD shown in the table, whilst both types of providers are growing, the non-bank providers are growing more significantly and therefore are also starting to erode the banks’ share in the prime space too.Absolute market share change and % change in YTD new lending for the credit card market split by type of lender and value of limit provided.Bank under £1.5k Market Share Absolute Change (Jul 25 v Jul 24) = -0.4% % Change New Lending Volumes 2025 YTD v 2024 YTD = -11.3%Non Bank under £1.5k Market Share Absolute Change (Jul 25 v Jul 24) = 3.2% % Change New Lending Volumes 2025 YTD v 2024 YTD = 25.6%Bank £1.5k+ plus Market Share Absolute Change (Jul 25 v Jul 24) = -0.9% % Change New Lending Volumes 2025 YTD v 2024 YTD = 13.3%Non Bank £1.5k Plus Market Share Absolute Change (Jul 25 v Jul 24) = -2.0% % Change New Lending Volumes 2025 YTD v 2024 YTD = 19.2%Confidence in this market remains strong and the relaxing of risk strategies has enabled wider adoption across both prime and subprime customers, resulting in the number of customers using cards continuing to rise. In fact, since the start of 2024, statement balances have risen 10%, average balances per customer are up 4% to almost £3k, customer card holdings are up 3% and the number of cards carrying balances is up 9%.Whilst back book cards are responsible for 85% of all balances currently, this has come down from 82%, suggesting consumers are increasingly using their new cards and taking advantage of balance transfer deals and rewards offerings.Credit Card New Lending Volumes (Indexed to Jan 23)Volume of new lending in the credit card market continues to grow, up 17% YTD.Continued growth in the personal loans marketThe demand for personal loans has continued to increase, with eligibility soft searches for loans up 20% YoY.This is being driven by increasingly attractive rates for prime consumers, and “consolidate other debts” remains the most popular reason for searching. New lending is also up with a YTD rise of 12% volume-wise and 13% value-wise, meaning lenders are meeting this demand.Similarly to credit cards, growth in this vertical is being driven by non-traditional providers in both low and high value loans. Whilst traditional banks have grown in the region of 5% YTD compared to 2024, non-traditional providers have grown by almost 30% meaning market shares between the two are becoming more even. Contrastingly, credit unions have fallen back, having reduced volumes by -25%.Personal Loans New Lending Volumes (Indexed to Jan 23)New lending volumes in the personal loans market are up 12% YTD.MortgagesRelaxation of mortgage rules will aid continued growth.The mortgage market recovery continues with demand up 13% YTD and new lending volumes up 15%. New lending value is also up by 19% compared to the same period in 2024 driven by rising house prices over the course of the last year, despite the more recent dip.The recovery of this market has resulted in a gradual decrease in the average credit risk score of customers opening new mortgages over the course of the last 2.5 years. Whilst still considerably higher than those opening accounts in other markets, the average risk score is down 1% compared to this time last year and 2% compared to this time two years ago. Whilst down for all types of mortgage customers, this erosion of quality is more prevalent in the first-time buyer population who were more likely to be put off buying their first property whilst the market went through its period of turbulence beginning mid-late 2022. Since mortgage rates have come down and remained stable for some time now, consumer confidence has returned, and more are coming back to market.With the recovery of the market, we have also seen an increase in the proportion of mortgage customers choosing to continue their mortgage into retirement. The proportion of lending into retirement is now approaching half of all new mortgages and has remained around this level since the start of 2024. This is, however, much higher than 2019 levels which previously sat at ~33% showing a combination of higher mortgage rates, house price inflation and the lingering impact of increased essential expenditure are causing consumers to stretch terms to make monthly payments more affordable.Mortgage New Lending Volumes (Indexed to Jan 23)The mortgage market continues its recovery with volumes of new accounts up 15% YTD.The recent relaxation of lending rules by the Government is likely to further decrease the average credit risk score of mortgage customers coming to market as it will allow lenders to lend more to individuals on lower incomes thus increasing the accessibility of the market in general. This is a positive step forward but with this drop in new business quality comes the need to effectively monitor customers for signs of stress. As of June 2025, there were 15,000 mortgage holders that had missed 3 or more payments on their mortgage but were previously on-time payers. This cohort of individuals looked reasonably positive in terms of credit risk in June 2024, with over half having a score deemed fair or better, however this means just under half were already showing signs of stress even before this point. Looking at warning signs on their other products shows that, over the course of the 12 months leading to the 3 missed mortgage payments, average credit card utilisation rose, and the number of default and delinquent accounts started to track upwards.Breaking out these default and delinquent accounts by product shows that certain products tend to go bad before others. For instance, individuals seem to stop paying their personal loans, credit cards and retail finance accounts first to try and recoup some disposable income, with auto finance overtaking retail finance later on when greater savings need to be made.There are currently 14m up to date mortgage customers, of which 145k have missed 2 or more payments on at least one of their other products. A single customer view, created by high-quality data and insights, will enable lenders to monitor and support these consumers to prevent mortgage impact.1+ rate of other accounts held by consumers who have missed 3 or more mortgage payments (Indexed to Jan 2023 1+ rate)The rate of accounts with 1 or more missed payments held by those who have missed 3+ payments on their mortgage as of June 25 increases the closer they get to the missed mortgage payment. Personal loans show the highest likelihood of missed payment.“With the right data and insights, there are clear ways in which mortgage lenders can monitor and support vulnerable customers before payments are missed.” Hannah Lloyd, Senior Data Analyst, Data InsightsDemand for auto finance returningDemand for auto finance is still lagging compared to last year, currently down 2% YTD, but is showing signs of recovery as a result of the introduction of electric vehicle (EV) grants.These grants came into force in July 2025 and aim to reduce the upfront costs of EVs to accelerate adoption, meaning new EV buyers can see discounts of up to £3,750 applied automatically at the point of sale.In terms of new lending, we have seen slight growth compared to last year, with volumes up 2% YTD and value up 5%, due to vehicle price inflation. The higher price of vehicles has also pushed up average terms as customers stretch loan length to increase affordability.Auto Finance New Lending Volumes (Indexed to Jan 23)The auto finance market is showing signs of recovery with new lending volumes up 2% YTD. The peaks seen in March and September every year represent new registration months.BNPL momentum continues and small growth for retail financeDemand for retail finance remains slightly below this time last year but new lending volumes are in growth, up 5% YTD. BNPL continues on its impressive growth trajectory.Like the rapid rise in new lending volumes seen in BNPL, we have seen equally impressive rises in the number of individuals using BNPL and their total spend. Despite total spend growth, the average basket value per transaction has actually reduced, suggesting growth continues to come from high frequency, small purchases. The use for small purchases is a key indicator that the convenience and ease of use of BNPL continues to be the driving factor for adoption.Comparatively, the retail finance market remains subdued but is showing small growth.We have seen strong YTD growth coming from fixed term retail finance products (loans for particular goods) and some growth in revolving retail finance (accounts where customers have a credit limit to spend in store), but the mail order sub-section of this market (e.g. catalogue purchases) is where the slowdown is being seen. Recent Experian analysis indicates that some of this is being driven by traditional mail order consumers migrating to use BNPL lending.Delinquency RiskDelinquency rates remain stable.Despite rising balances and broader product adoption, delinquency remains stable and predictable.New business performance at 3 months on book for cards and loans shows some minor deterioration, but this aligns with increased lending to higher-risk segments.Whilst these rates are aligned to risk, the two markets are showing some differentiation in their ability to choose the portion of riskier segments they lend to. When stratifying the new business delinquency trends for credit cards by credit risk we can see that the rate of risk emergence remains stable across the risk spectrum and has actually started to come down in almost all risk groups when compared to previous years going back to 2022. The same cannot be said for the personal loans market where the same stratification shows elevated levels of emergence in the highest risk groups, suggesting a less robust strategy when it comes to consumer selection. The increase in lower value, shorter term lending given to more subprime groups in the personal loans market is beginning to show signs of adverse performance and therefore should be monitored closely.Collections entry rates remain steady, and while the value of accounts entering collections is rising in credit cards, auto finance and mortgages, this reflects asset price inflation rather than worsening consumer behaviour. Stock delinquency volumes have increased slightly, especially in automotive, retail finance and credit cards, but overall performance metrics suggest consumers are managing their credit responsibly.According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK unemployment rate currently sits at 4.7%. This has remained stable over the last quarter but is 0.5% higher than the same period last year. If unemployment continues to rise and the prophesied tax rises in the upcoming November budget manifest, then consumer resilience is likely to take a step back. This means the industry must leverage data and early stress signals and vulnerability in order to continue to support consumers in a safe and responsible manner.“Despite the increases we are seeing in balances and product use and changing consumer behaviour, we continue to see stability in the collection’s environment. This supports continued growth, provided early warning signs are spotted and leveraged to ensure consumers remain supported” Craig Lupton, Head of Consumer Insight, ExperianConsumer BehaviourConsumers are engaging with credit in new ways. The number of people carrying unsecured debt is up across all age groups compared to pre-pandemic levels, with the over-75s now more engaged than the under-24s. We have seen strong growth in demand and new lending, particularly in the unsecured markets, and with strong growth comes increased competition. This increasingly competitive landscape has yielded new and innovative products that are not only causing intra-market competition, but inter-market too. For example, you can now access BNPL-like features on credit cards, and some lenders are rolling out digital-style cards with limits that can be spent in specified stores. Coupled with the power of digital eligibility journeys and improved marketing engagement online, consumers are now opening credit not because of need but so they can capitalise on rewards and deals.Credit card usage is up, with more people holding multiple cards and using them actively. The number of customers holding cards has increased across all age groups, and our data shows that 52% of the UK adult population holds a credit card, up from 46% pre-pandemic. The highest proportional growth has come from the over 75s but there has been strong growth in the under 24s too, shown in the chart below. Unlike cards, personal loan adoption has seen less growth in the younger cohorts and has instead further solidified its use in the middle-aged groups.Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) continues to be popular among younger consumers but is also gaining traction with older demographics with over 5 times as many over 65s using it in August 2025 compared to March 2023. With this, we’ve also seen a reduction in the use of retail finance loans, particularly among the over 65s whose proportion holding this type of account has fallen -22% over the same period. This suggests the erosion of the retail finance market and the rise in popularity of BNPL products are interlinked.The rising adoption of cards and BNPL among varying demographics suggest consumers’ attitudes towards credit are changing. Whether it be the increased amount of flexibility and convenience of these products driving this, or an improvement in financial education, consumers seem more confident to hold credit than before. On top of this, given the stability and predictability of delinquency rates covered in our previous section, consumers are also managing these new commitments effectively and are therefore able to reap the benefits of being active members of the credit market.How can Experian help?With our rich breadth and depth of data on consumers across the UK, we empower lenders to optimise new lending decisions and uncover growth opportunities with the right risk-aligned customers.What’s more, we can help organisations to understand each consumer’s individual financial circumstances, verifying their income, employment and expenditure to ensure products and services are right for them, today and in the future.“We believe data has the power to change lives.”With better, more informed data we can support your business to grow and help you to drive better outcomes for your customers.Find out more about:Affordability insights Reveal more about a consumer’s financial health.Open banking insights Helping lenders to verify and monitor financial wellbeing to take action quickly.Digital Payroll Reducing risk of payslip fraud by using verified income and employment verification data directly from source.Credit risk Enabling lenders to assess and monitor risk at the point of consumer engagementWant to know more? Contact us ;