Experian UK Business Credit Trends Index: Q2 2025

An overview of the macroeconomic outlook and SME credit trends

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Confident lending in a changing market: Summer 2025 insights for growth

The UK business lending landscape is shifting—fast. With GDP contracting and inflation climbing to 3.6% in June, businesses are responding with caution. Yet, resilience is emerging in unexpected places: the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has held in growth territory for three consecutive months, and lending activity, while plateauing, continues to show promise in high-volume, low-value segments. Our Summer 2025 report breaks down these trends and what they mean for lenders navigating uncertainty.

With borrowing costs elevated and fiscal policy in flux ahead of the Autumn Budget, the next six months will be pivotal. SME borrowing behaviour is evolving, and lenders must act with precision. Download the report to uncover the data, insights, and strategic foresight needed to lend confidently and grow securely in today’s complex environment.

Download the full report now >

In this report, we cover:

SME credit trends to watch
We look at demand and supply, the role of alternative lenders, and credit performance highlights.
Macroeconomic outlook
How economic trends are shaping SME resilience.
SME demands
How demand for credit is reflected into lending and SME delinquency rates.

A sneak peek into...

Experian UK Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME) Credit Trends Index

Mark England, Head of Commercial Insight, Data Office, Experian

Foreword

A view of the UK business lending landscape

As we move further into 2025, the UK business landscape is reflecting a complex interplay of cautious optimism and emerging pressure points. Following a strong start to the year, economic momentum has slowed. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), in particular, are feeling the weight of April’s tax adjustments and evolving global conditions. Yet, amid the challenges, there are meaningful signals of resilience, and opportunities for lenders who are agile enough to interpret and act on what the data reveals.

The most recent economic indicators tell a nuanced story. GDP has contracted in recent months, with forecasted flat or slightly negative growth ahead. Unemployment is edging upwards, and inflation lifted to 3.6% in June, the highest since January 2024. This upward pressure on prices has been coupled with behavioural shifts from businesses, many of whom responded to tariff and tax changes with price adjustments, hiring slowdowns, and in some cases, workforce reductions.

Despite this, some indicators have shown modest improvement in recent months, most notably the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which has held in growth territory for three consecutive months, driven by services, while manufacturing and construction activity outlooks continue to contract.