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Stability over stimulus: Making sense of the Budget, evolving credit trends, and technology driven opportunities for SME lenders through 2026
The UK business landscape has faced yet another year of economic uncertainty, with rising costs and fragile growth shaping lending behaviour. Our latest report examines the Autumn Budget’s stabilising impact, the evolving credit environment, and the pressures facing key sectors such as hospitality, retail, and construction.
Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, muted growth and elevated risk demand sharper credit management and tailored solutions. From embedded finance to streamlined digital journeys, technology and innovation will be central to unlocking opportunities. This report equips lenders, SMEs, and stakeholders with actionable insights to navigate challenges and seize growth in a market that rewards agility.
In this report, we cover:
SME credit trends to watch
We look at demand and supply, the role of alternative lenders, and credit performance highlights.
Macroeconomic outlook
How economic trends are shaping SME resilience.
SME demands
How demand for credit is reflected into lending and SME delinquency rates.
A sneak peek into...
Experian UK Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise (SME) Credit Trends Index
Mark England, Head of Commercial Insight, Data Office, Experian
Foreword
The past year has been marked by economic uncertainty and a shifting landscape for businesses across the UK
Against this backdrop, we explore the implications of the Autumn Budget,
the evolving credit environment, and the opportunities that lie ahead for
2026 and beyond. This report distils those discussions into actionable
insights for lenders, SMEs, and stakeholders navigating a complex market.
The Budget delivered stability rather than stimulus. While businesses avoided the sharpest tax increases, rising costs – from wages to business rates – continue to squeeze margins. Inflation is easing, but growth remains fragile, and productivity forecasts have been downgraded. These dynamics are shaping lending behaviour: we’ve seen strong expansion in SME credit overall, yet a clear divergence between investment-driven borrowing and day-to-day working capital needs. Growth in high value lending paused amid uncertainty, while revolving credit and innovative products surged, reflecting businesses’ appetite for flexibility and a greater need for day-to-day financial support.
Looking ahead, muted growth and elevated risk will demand a sharper focus on credit management and tailored solutions. Technology and product innovation will play a pivotal role, from embedded finance to streamlined digital journeys. At the same time, sector-specific pressures – particularly in hospitality, retail, and construction – underscore the need for nuanced strategies.
We’re here to help you make sense of these trends and prepare for what’s next. The report offers comprehensive view of economic conditions, lending patterns, and emerging opportunities, equipping you to navigate challenges and seize growth in a market that rewards agility and insight.
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To find out more about identifying SME Credit Trends, download our report.
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