With crashing consumer confidence, a period of enforced business closures and life as we know it very much changed, the coronavirus pandemic has created huge shifts in underlying borrowing characteristics and credit portfolio dynamics. Economic recovery will inevitably take time, and it begins by creating genuine clarity about the challenges ahead.
Whatever sector you’re lending in, uncertainty is swirling. The housing market is slowing, emerging from a virtual standstill, car sales have been almost impossible and insurance providers have been riding a months-long rollercoaster of shifting risk, with travel claims soaring but theft and motor payouts taking an unprecedented tumble.
Of course, firms aren’t alone in feeling these economic effects. While the crisis is hitting some regions harder than others, wherever you operate, one thing is clear – consumer incomes are changing – quickly, dramatically and in a way nobody had time to predict.
Explored in this paper:
- Turbulent economic times
- Rapid, relevant scenario modelling
- Taking scenario testing to new limits
- Market and portfolio insights
- World-class economic scenario modelling
- Portfolio-tailored unemployment curves
- IFRS 9 forward looking credit loss modelling