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Understand the trends and prospects across key retail products, residential house prices and the drivers of affordability.

The economy is set for a period of sustained growth, with no sign of a slowdown in employment growth in the labour market. The strength of the recovery is reflected in the strong upward march of house prices, which has led to talk of a house price “bubble”. Incomes have lagged the economic recovery, which has led to renewed concerns around affordability as wage growth has failed to keep up with inflation and house prices in recent years. While the expectation is that wages will grow more strongly going forward on the back of higher employment, interest rates look set to rise early next year – which will add additional pressures to customer affordability.

Responsible lending requires maximising the opportunities that the current growth environment presents, while at the same time remaining cognisant of the potential affordability challenges that still lie ahead.

Our subscription based reports analyse the key trends and prospects in consumer credit markets and in the residential housing market.

Consumer credit report     House prices report

Demand for consumer credit has picked up over the past eighteen months across the broad spectrum of retail products. With the economy now on a relatively robust growth trajectory, it is important to understand the opportunities that such growth provides, both in terms of potential demand and customer affordability.

  • What are the current trends in the UK credit market?
  • What are the prospects for secured and unsecured lending in the UK?
  • What are the prospects for those economic factors that drive the demand for credit and the ability to pay?

The Experian non-CAIS consumer credit report provides Experian’s view of where the UK consumer credit market is headed.

The report analyses consumer credit trends across both secured and unsecured lending based on a wide range of publicly available data sources. The report provides analysis of the economic drivers for the different retail products as well as the drivers of affordability. This will aid lenders to monitor the future strength of market dynamics, and future trends of key affordability metrics such as real disposable incomes, employment and unemployment rates, as well as forecasts of new lending for both the secured and unsecured products.

The database contains historical and forecast data of the key consumer credit series for secured and unsecured lending together with key economic data series that drive demand for credit and affordability, such as economic growth, consumer demand, disposable incomes, employment and unemployment, as well as interest rates.

With growing concerns of a potential housing bubble and growing disparities in the performance of the UK residential housing market, the report looks into:

  • What will be the future capital values in your secured lending portfolio and what are the associated values at risk?
  • Which areas will have the strongest growth in house prices?
  • Will current lending practices be appropriate going forward as house prices continue to outstrip income growth?

Increase the accuracy of future house price movements using Experian’s future estimates of house price movements at a local authority level of geography, rather than relying solely on national level house price data and forecasts.

Experian provides historical and forecast house price data at national, regional and local authority levels and income measures for you to append to your books.

Narrative is provided with an accompanying UK house price report analysing the key drivers of house prices and affordability. Both the database and report are updated every quarter to give you the freshest set of forecasts.

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