Custom Economic Forecasts

Economic forecasts customised to your specific requirements

Experian regularly creates a variety of highly respected NIGEM-generated forecasts, including UK Base Case, PRA high-risk and PRA low-risk scenarios, which our clients use to inform their strategies and planning decisions.

However, there are times when you may need a forecast customised to your own specifications, which assesses the likely impact a given economic scenario has on macroeconomic, local economy, industrial sector or household factors that impact on your business or your portfolio. Experian can help you develop the forecast narrative to fit your requirements.

Why use our economic forecasts?

Using our forecast services will help you understand better how potential future market and economic conditions could impact your business. This additional insight can help you:

  • Identify, plan for and mitigate future economic risks, creating a more stable economy and market place
  • Exploit new opportunities in your strategic or financial planning
  • Meet existing regulatory requirements for stress testing, Basel modelling or loss forecasting under IFRS 9
  • Understand which customers, local economies or investments will be the most vulnerable or benefit the most from a given economic scenario
  • Design better products and services, and offer them to the right people at the right time, by understanding more clearly the conditions in which your customers operate
  • Support local authorities and government in planning resources and services to better meet the future needs of their constituents

Examples of our economic forecasts

Experian uses the globally recognised macroeconomic model, NIGEM, to quantify the impact of different scenarios. Our fully consistent, top-down, model-based approach enables a scenario to be filtered down from the UK macroeconomic level to quantify the resulting impacts on households, sectors and local economies.

Examples of scenarios for customers include:

  • Determining what constitutes a significant change in credit risk
  • PRA stress tests for regulatory compliance
  • Interest rates hikes occurring sooner or faster than expected
  • Government policy decisions on tax increases or spending cuts
  • A renewed Eurozone crisis i.e. Greece leaving the European union – ‘GREXIT’
  • Potential impacts of UK leaving the EU
  • Impact of a slowdown in the Chinese economy
  • Global economic shocks (e.g. falls in oil / commodity prices)
  • A unique set of events that would impact your business

Experian can also provide statistically generated scenarios, by providing stochastically generated forecast values. These generate the confidence bands around the forecast or scenario for the economic factors required for your analysis.

These forecasts and scenarios can be used to evaluate the resultant impact on local economies, business sectors and households. This allows for a more granular level of analysis for your business decisions and impacts on your current or potential customer portfolios.

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